Is he the Moyesiah?

Is he the Moyesiah?

So, what a week for two of English Footballs heavy weights.  In truth, it all felt rather predictable if not surreal.  Predictable in the sense that many Evertonians have long suggested Moyes may one day take over from Sir Alex Ferguson but surreal in so much as he’s become part of the furniture at Goodison, after an eleven year trophy less managerial spell that is almost unheard of in the modern day game. 

Back in 1986 when Alex Ferguson – as he simply was back then – took over the Manchester United hot seat, the football landscape was very different.  Putting aside the European ban, this was a different era of football and of football dominance, one in which I was still in my informative years and my own childhood expectations were that the great club I supported would always be winning silverware. 

Everton had come narrowly close to completing a unique treble the year before, winning the 1985 League title, a fiercely competitive European Cup Winners’ Cup (defeating German powerhouse Bayern Munich in an epic semi final along the way), and were only denied the treble when medallion rattler Ron Atkinson’s Manchester United beat Everton 1-0 after extra time in the FA Cup Final, only days after the European final.  But, as I say, it was a different time; Everton had played 63 games that season using little more than 15 or 16 players and the FA Cup Final, especially extra-time, took it’s toll on what had been an epic season.  It makes a slight mockery of the best looked after footballers we’ve ever seen complaining about too many games when they’re in a squad of 30 players.  Everton had been so dominant in 1985, they won the league title by – at that time – a record points margin and included a complete 5-0 demolition of Manchester United at Goodison Park.  A year later, Alex Ferguson took charge of United and started his quest towards breaking up the Merseyside footballing monopoly.  The decade finished with the Merseyside giants as the top two clubs in English league history, Liverpool winning the last of their 18 league titles and Everton having won the last of our 9 in 1987.

That tide started to turn at the beginning of the next decade.  Fergusons first trophy was the FA Cup in 1990, followed by his first league title in 1993, and we all know the story from there. 

So, does Moyes have what it takes to carry on the incredible job Ferguson has done?  It’s truly a tough question.  I think, with Ferguson still in the background, he has a much bigger helping hand than most in the game.  He’s going into a club that runs like a well oiled machine, one with a winning mentality, and one that has money to invest in world class players.  That’s not easy to balls up, but the weight of expectation and the long shadow cast by Ferguson will take some adjustment for any new manager coming in, no matter how tough their mentality.  In that regard, Moyes is a solid choice.  He has a steely resolve, commitment and strong work ethic, which will no doubt see him through.  I would be surprised with the facilities, players and funds available to him, if he were to win nothing over the course of the next two years, but I don’t expect him to be a raving success.  If he is to win the United fans over, he is going to have to drastically change the footballing philosophies he demonstrated at Everton.  Some may say, and Moyes may argue this himself, that he had to adopt certain footballing strategies as an approach to dealing with the restrained conditions he and his team were working under at Everton.  However, I know plenty of Blues who share my opinion that he just didn’t have that winning mentality, too often playing it safe rather than gambling and sticking his neck out when it mattered.  He who dares wins, so said Del Boy via the SAS. 

So, how is the mood amongst Evertonians?  It’s difficult to fully judge.  I obviously know a lot of Evertonians having grown up in Liverpool, traveling home and away with the club extensively down the years.  We all communicate with one another very regularly on all things Everton, and no less so than this week.  The age of social media also means I can pick up threads of feeling from other Everton fans I don’t know personally via platforms such as Twitter, and the mood is not – as supporters of other teams may think – despondent.  Sure, there are a large proportion of Blues (most likely the lion share) who are disappointed, but there are a fair few that are, should I even say, delighted to hear Moyes is moving on.  My seventy-four year old Father was no doubt dancing around the living room on Thursday.  I don’t know yet because I’ve not called him but my Brother – equally nonplus about the news – advised me the ‘Arl Fella had said, “I hope he falls flat on his face at United”.  A few years back, after more than a decade of total commitment, Dad and I both gave up our season tickets because we were tired of coming away from games constantly complaining about the same thing week in week out, disgruntled with the style of football Everton were playing, and the ludicrous team selections and substitutions by the Manager.  Don’t get me wrong, the results were far better than they had been through the darker days of Walter Smith, but it was not entertainment, more a sense of duty to our club, a duty to invest where our board was failing miserably and turn up no matter what.  After more than a decade, especially with me now living away from the City, it became a little too wearisome.  This was largely a response to Moyes despite the “good job” he had done in stabilising Everton and taking us away from being perennial relegation strugglers, back to a more palatable league position in the top five to eight teams.      

For those of us who watch Everton week in week out and have done so for a very long time, there are common themes of disgruntlement in regards to David Moyes and his managerial style.  There appears to be a self-perpetuating belief that he gives youth a go but when you truly analyse it, there are many occasions where he could have given youth more of a chance.  Wayne Rooney was actually a very spectacular example of that.  Looking back, it’s easy to be critical because you also have to remember Moyes was a young manager, still feeling his way, a relative unknown, and was dealing with a Prodigious young talent for probably the first time, but many of us at the time felt he was underplaying Rooney and this argument seemed to bare fruit when Rooney joined United and scored a spectacular hat-trick on his European debut.  There are more recent examples this season when a young Ross Barkley never seemed to get a chance, farmed out on loan, before coming back and playing very well in away games at Spurs and Arsenal, only to be unceremoniously dropped as soon as one of Moyes’ old favourites become fit and available again.  Duffy, Vellios, and Oviedo are other examples of potential young talents who have not had a look in, when first teamers like Heitinga, Neville, Osman and Jelavic have been going through the motions.   That’s not to say some youngsters haven’t blossomed under Moyes, Seamus Coleman being an excellent example, but they are – in my view – far fewer than maybe there could have been.  When you see the ability from a player such as Barkley, you wonder why he’s not been given a longer run. 

Then there are his negative tactics and late, late substitutions.  I’ve lost count of the number of games where I’ve screamed myself hoarse seeing a change in the pattern of play, desperate for the manager to stem the tide, yet it only ever seemed to happen after we conceded the inevitable goal.  Of course, by then, it’s often been too late.  Everton have drawn more games in the Premier league this season than any other team (15), and many of them have been from winning positions, where a vital substitution was not made until too late.  Some may think I’m crazy given our resources and squad, but we should have comfortably qualified for Champions League football this season given some of the points squandered.  I may sound like a loon from across the park with that statement (“Liverpool Logic”), but Blues will know there have been many points surrendered this season that were avoidable had it been for some more gutsy managerial decision making.  There are very fine margins in football and the great managers demonstrate balls.

I’ve not even started on the many occasions Moyes bottled the big games, when lesser teams (albeit many have been relegated since) have won trophies and also gone to Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and United, and won; something Moyes was never able to achieve in eleven years.  Quite astonishing.

I’ve had good debate with fellow Blues about Moyes down the years and respect what others believe about him.  We’re all welcome to our own opinions.  I’m a little harsher in my summary than my Best Man for example, but much more balanced than my Dad.  My own view is clearly in the minority amongst the football journalists and experts, but my belief is that he’s a good manager, not a great manager.  I think he’s a top guy with many great qualities, so I have a great deal of respect for him as a man, as a professional and as someone who always had Everton’s best interests at heart, but I’ve felt for some time that he had taken Everton as far as he was able and it was time for something fresh to see if we could push on to that next level.  Careful what you wish for maybe but that’s not what made Everton great in the past.

Only time will tell whether Moyes was a great, or just a good solid manager.  I may have done him a huge diservice as his work behind the scenes, the set up he has built and the stability he has brought should not go unnoticed and absolutely should be thanked.  When all is said and done, Managers are judged by the results on the pitch and whilst they have got progressively better over the years, they haven't delivered anymore silverware to the Goodison cabinet.  But, maybe for a club with such finite resources, that's expecting too much in an era were money tends to dominates success.  I'm sad that he never won a trophy with Everton especially as he's likely to go on and win them elsewhere.  I wish him well, but having developed a strong dislike for Manchester United at the age of eight when they stopped us from doing that treble I mentioned earlier, I don’t wish him that well.  Onwards Evertonians.

The Undeniable Logic of Football Fans!

The Undeniable Logic of Football Fans!

My last Blog “The Curious Case of Everton Football Club” was recently posted on Everton fan site Bluekipper, with my permission.

Although the number of comments posted in response was minute when you consider the number of Blues out there, and certainly in comparison to the feedback I have received via Twitter and other channels, it does strikes me just how rabidly critical some of my fellow Evertonians can be, particularly when they have a polar opposite opinion, or they’re simply ignorant to the facts being reported.  I say ignorant because there was very little in terms of an “opposing view”, so it sort of makes it a little difficult to have a sensible debate.  In fact, I asked some friends to comment on the piece because they were positive about what I’d written.  Their individual comments have not been approved and posted on the site, which has left a completely one-sided commentary in response.  It makes me wonder what the motives behind this are?

It seemed clear to me that some responders simply read what they wanted to read – making things up in their heads as they read – rather than actually reading what was written.  One or two seemed to view the piece as an attack on our love and affection for Everton, yet this was never questioned and no suggestion was ever made that one's affinity with the club should diminish because of the perceived poor running of the club.  “You can’t stick my love for Everton on a balance sheet” said one.  Who suggested you could or should?!  What have the clubs poor finances got to do with our love of the club as fans?!  Completely ludicrous statements such as this can make it difficult to formulate a logical response because it’s so far removed from the issue. I’ve always been someone able to take constructive criticism, it’s imperative to make yourself better in what you do and who you are, but when you analyse some of the pitiful comments made, you start to question the actual motivation of the commentators in respect to the context of the current situation at our football club.

“Total bollocks”, “What a load of shite”, “More conspiracy theories” (where’s the conspiracy?!), Collymore is this and Collymore is that, all really constructive commentary and offering an alternative view to the predicament many are not happy with.  Personally, I don’t care much for Collymore but he addressed a situation that is clearly of importance to at least some Evertonians.  Important enough to have a phone in devoted to the subject for more than two and half hours.  It was advised on air that both Kenwright and Moyes had sanctioned the broadcast of the responses from the “unknown source”, so again, why some Evertonians feel the need to call the figures “bollocks”, “inaccurate” or a total load of tosh is beyond me.  They’re the facts in the public domain and what we have available to make commentary upon.

Of course, a number of the reader comments were simply diversions from the core subject of the article.  Everton is for sale, it has allegedly been for sale for some years, we’re the 4^th most successful club in the country, there should be plenty of suitors, there have been suitors, but still no sale.  The simple question is why?  This appears to have been generally ignored by the 14 responders to date – all of whom are welcome to their opinions of course.  Significantly more have agreed with my view via Twitter and other channels so there certainly does seem to be a balance of opinion but there will always be doubters and ignoramus.  My childhood hero Neville Southall felt it was a “good interesting read” so that satisfied me that at least one person connected with the club understands the numbers.  

Whether you agree with my view or otherwise is not of central importance, understanding the facts of the numbers is what’s important.  It was suggested by one that I’m an accountant and it has literally been taken as a fact within the threads because one dissenting reader simply tends to agree with the words of the previous dissenting readers unable to portray any independent thought.  I’m not an accountant, a mathematician, an economist, nor have I ever had the desire to be.  I simply looked at the latest accounts filed with companies’ house and performed some very basic analysis of the differences between income and outgoings from one year to the next.  Nothing complicated or startling in that.  One laughably referred to me as a “twonk” because the “Assets were running around on the pitch”.  I know mate, I referred to them as “intangible assets” and even explained this meant players. I also explained that their values decrease over time.  The relevance being, it has a bearing on the total value of the club and what the board is asking for!  This reader for example, had simply ignored the “Tangible Assets” that I had referred to, Bellfield & Goodison.  Did you actually get the gist of what the article was about or where you too busy dreaming up insults that trumped the reader before you? For some, the analysis of numbers seems to simply be too much and is – of course – all a “load of bollocks” and “made up”.  Ghandi once said, “Even if you are a minority of one, the truth is the truth.”  I’m certainly not a minority of one, but the truth is still the truth.  The numbers are factual and you have to understand the numbers to try and draw a conclusion upon why the football club has not been sold or whether the reported value is “fair”.  This was the POINT of the whole piece and yet the response of some old windbags concentrated upon completely irrelevant factors.  So, the challenge to you dissenting voices, what’s your actual view on the valuation? 

I had a couple of responses that were – at least – critical of the method of valuation.  This I don’t mind.  After all, I prefixed my calculations with “bag of a fag packet” and asserted that there are indeed many ways to value a company.  I’m very well aware a Football Club is not a normal company, but that doesn’t mean every investor will take exactly the same approach to valuation.  Not every law firm, accountancy firm or retailer is valued in exactly the same way as their competitors, so why indeed would a football club? It’s naive to believe they would be.  The “market dictates the value,” said one dissenter, ignoring this as one of my very points!  As the market dictates the value and as the club has been for sale for quite some years, the logical conclusion is that the asking price is too high.  In the same manner that a house on the market for 2 years at the same price is more than likely “over valued”.  It doesn’t take a mathematician, accountant or financial whizz to work this sort of stuff out.

There was also a general theme in the responses that Kenwright is better than the last guy (Peter Johnson).  That may well be true, but just because he’s perceived to be better (because he’s an Evertonian) doesn’t mean he’s the right man for our club, or the best.  For a long time now, I’ve hoped that he would come good, that he would have a plan, show some business nowse and commercial acumen, but it hasn’t happened.  “Careful what you wish for” is an overused phrase in regard to this subject and whilst I believe in the mantra it shouldn’t provide for so much caution it halts progress.  It certainly doesn’t mean that fans should settle for the status quo and not strive for better.   I’m one Evertonian who will certainly never do so.  

The curious case of Everton Football Club

 It’s been a difficult week for Evertonians, after a season that promised so much; we’ve seen a strong Christmas position in the top 4 and a great FA Cup opportunity disintegrate into nothing.  My wife detests football and can’t understand why I spend so much time and energy around the beautiful game.  Sometimes I have to wonder myself.

Everton Football Club to many outside of the UK is – ashamedly – relatively unknown.  In my professional career, I meet people from a breadth of different cultures and nationalities many of whom are sports fans, yet when it comes to the conversation of my big sporting love, I’ve lost count of the number of times I have had to explain who and where Everton Football Club are.  Yes, really.  And, it never ceases to amaze and disappoint me when Italians, Spaniards, and Germans (in particular) question me as to what division we play in. 

When I left Liverpool to study at the age of 18, Everton had just won their 5th and last FA Cup (maybe I should move back).  We had experienced a difficult decade following one of the club’s most successful periods during my informative footballing years in the mid-1980’s.  As a young boy educated by a Father who had watched and marveled at the School of Science teams of the halcyon days of the 1960’s, I simply assumed the FA Cup, League titles and European trophy that were collected by the all conquering teams of the mid-80’s was just the way it was.  Oh boy, what a wake up call my twenties and thirties have been!

Never a media darling, but one of the top four English league clubs, a founder member of the Football League in 1888, whose first league title followed shortly after in 1890/91 when playing at Anfield (Yes, Anfield.  Liverpool FC didn’t exist until a year later due to a falling out between Everton FC and the greedy landlord who tried to capitalise on the newly crowned Champions’ prize money by hiking up the stadium rent).  A rich trophy laden history followed as the club wrote itself into the history books time and time again, innovating as well as winning, and building one of the largest and most localised fan bases in the country.  So, where did it all go wrong?  Once known as the Mersey Millionaires and arguably THE biggest and most successful club in the country during that period, how did a club at the top of the English game in the mid 80’s see such a meteoric decline in fortunes over the next twenty years?

There are a number of answers to this question, especially in terms of what many Evertonians see as the route cause, but factors have continued to conspire against the club in the last two decades and despite David Moyes celebrating eleven years at the helm today, many – myself included – feel that the man dubbed “The Moyesiah” and credited with keeping Everton in the top division (the longest serving club in the top division by the way), should step aside.  However, it is the board and not the manager who must be blamed for Everton’s inability to re-establish themselves as a top club capable of competing regularly for trophies.  At 18 years, this is technically the clubs most barren spell without a trophy.  I say “technically” because Everton were champions in 1939 before the World War I and held the mantle until 1945 when the league resumed post war.  The club never won another trophy until once again clinching the league title in 1963.  Up until 1990, Everton were second only to bitter rivals Liverpool as the countries’ top team.  Only Arsenal and Manchester United have surpassed The Toffess during the Premiership years.  I slightly labour this point because with the dawn of the cash laden years of football has come a tendency for the media and football pundits alike to completely rewrite the football history books.

The current board acquired the shares of Everton Football Club in 1999 for £20 Million and lifelong Evertonian and Chairman, Bill Kenwright commented “If you are going to run a successful football club you need two qualities: you need to be realistic and you need a plan. I'm realistic and I have a plan."  Well Bill, we’re still waiting for the plan and as far as “realism” goes, I’ll come on to that in a minute.  At the time the board acquired Everton Football Club, there was no debt and a strong list of fixed assets on the balance sheet.

Today, the club may temporarily be in a healthier league position but its finances and balance sheet have literally been torn to shreds.  The one time Mersey Millionaires haven’t got a pot to piss in, and whilst Everton can’t rub two brass farthings together and add to the smallest squad in the top division, smaller clubs merrily splash the cash strengthening their healthy sized squads.  

That brings me to the point of realism.  This week, ex-Red Stan Collymore, focused on why Everton – such a big successful historic club – had not been bought during his evening show on Talk Sport.  It was suggested, following information provided by an “unknown source” at Everton, that board were seeking an amount close to £125 Million for the club.   

The obvious question being “how can the board realistically believe the club should be valued at £125 Million when Aston Villa was valued at c. £63 Million, Everton has run up debts to the tune of £44.2 Million, disposed of assets, and added liabilities to the balance sheet?”

If we look at the Corporate Finance of it, the numbers don’t immediately appear to stack up.  The latest P&L accounts show that Everton added -25.9% to the total debt between 2011 and 2012 due to a loss of £9.1 Million.  Although total turnover only reduced by -1.8%, commercial revenue dropped by -34% year-on-year, whereas Gate Receipts and Broadcasting revenue remained within a -4% 0% range.  Intangible assets, specifically an ageing playing staff, will naturally reduce year-on-year unless new assets (players) are brought in to offset the annual amortisation.  The change between 2011 and 2012 was -23%, which is quite substantial given there was no major net gain on transfer fees.  So, then, what is it the board believe warrants a 525% return on their initial investment, thirteen years on?  The only feasible story can be the new BSkyB money due to be paid to all Premier League clubs for 2013/14.  The bottom placed team is reportedly likely to earn an additional £60 M, more than Champions Manchester City received in prize money last season.  This will, as was reported on Stan Collymore’s show, “wipe out the debts of all the major premier league teams”. 

So, there is an up side to Everton’s plight.  Well, not quite, because if every team sees substantial new revenues, they all have the ability to invest and strengthen their squads, whereas Everton’s board will more likely be concentrating on solving the “millstone” around the clubs neck, as the board have allegedly described the Grand Old Lady, Goodison Park. 

Again, turning to Corporate Finance.  Let us assume that through the new Broadcasting windfall Everton is able to wipe out the debt and make an operating profit (EBIT) of say, £15 Million.   Valuing a company is and can be a very complex process and yield a number of different outcomes depending on the view taken.  However, a very simple back of the fag packet calculation that is sometimes applied is EBIT multiplied by a factor of 8, or a similar number.  Taking an EBIT of £15 Million for 2013 with no debt (but shrinking assets), this gives a figure of £120 Million.  However, a shrewd negotiator would look for a substantial discount off that value given the lack of fixed assets, and the revenue problems created by the Grand Old Lady.  Therefore, the board and Kenwright in particular may have arrived at what they believe is a sensible valuation based upon future cash flows, but many would view it as “unrealistic”.  So, Bill, if you are the greatest Evertonian out there, convince the board to be more realistic in their valuation, forgo the greed of a 525% return on investment, and drop the asking price to a sum that will see a “worthy” investor take over and start the work of re-establishing EFC as a force.  An investor with just a little business nowse will be able to work wonders on the commercial revenue almost immediately.  Nil Satis Nisi Optimum.